Pending HPI Forecasts 5.7 Percent Year-Over-Year Increase for October
The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) showed that home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 5 percent in September 2012 compared to September 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since July 2006 and the seventh consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.3 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012*. The HPI analysis from CoreLogic shows that all but seven states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide also increased on a year-over-year basis by 5 percent in September 2012 compared to September 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in September 2012 compared to August 2012, the seventh consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that October 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 5.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from October 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from September 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter. Excluding distressed sales, October 2012 house prices are poised to rise 6.3 percent year-over-year from October 2011 and by 0.2 percent month-over-month from September 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.
“Home price improvement nationally continues to outpace our expectations, growing 5 percent year-over-year in September, the best showing since July 2006,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “While prices on a month-over-month basis are declining, as expected
in the housing off-season, most states are exhibiting price increases. Gains are particularly large in former housing bubble states and energy-industry concentrated states.”
Highlights as of September 2012
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+18.7 percent), Idaho (+13.1 percent), Nevada (+11.0 percent), Hawaii (+8.9 percent) and Utah (+8.7 percent).
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation were: Rhode Island (-3.5 percent), Illinois (-2.3 percent), New Jersey (-1.8 percent), Alabama (-1.3 percent) and Delaware (-0.5 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+14.0 percent), Idaho (+10.5 percent), Nevada (+9.5 percent), Montana (+8.5 percent) and California (+8.4 percent).
- Excluding distressed sales, this month only four states posted home price depreciation: Alabama (-3.1 percent), New Jersey (-1.6 percent), Delaware (-1.4 percent) and Rhode Island (-1.3 percent).
“Home prices are responding to better market fundamentals, such as reduced inventories and improved buyer demand,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “So far this year, we’re seeing clear signs of stabilization and improvement that show promise for a gradual recovery in the residential housing market.”
*August data was revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.
Click here to download the full September 2012 HPI data report >>
Most Current, Most Comprehensive HPI Data
CoreLogic HPI monthly updates offer the quickest HPI collateral valuation information in the industry—complete HPI datasets five weeks after month’s end—and leverage the full authority of CoreLogic’s industry-leading real estate databases, covering 6,783 Zip codes, 623 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), and 1,188 counties in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
CoreLogic HPI covers 6,783 ZIP codes, 623 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) and 1,188 counties in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. |
HPI for the Country’s Largest Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs):
September 2012
12-Month HPI |
||
Change by CBSA
|
||
CBSA |
Single
Family |
Single Family
Excluding Distressed |
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ |
22.1%
|
17.4%
|
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX |
6.6%
|
5.2%
|
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA |
5.2%
|
6.7%
|
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA |
4.8%
|
6.3%
|
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV |
4.8%
|
5.3%
|
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX |
4.1%
|
6.5%
|
New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ |
3.1%
|
3.1%
|
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA |
2.2%
|
5.0%
|
Philadelphia, PA |
-0.2%
|
0.6%
|
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL |
-2.9%
|
1.8%
|
Source: CoreLogic
Download Latest Complimentary Report
To view the September 2012 report, please click here (registration required).